Nice analysis, as always. Was it ever that fierce though? They got rolled in WWI (ok the Russian Empire, but 6 of one...), then they got rolled in WWII, before Germany over extended itself. What's that Stalin quote? "Quantity is a kind of quality." By which I take it he meant that they can fight and win a war of attrition with anyone. But that war of attrition was highly dependent on Balts, Ukrainians, Kazakhs, Belorussians, etc. They don't have that infinite well anymore. They have a bunch of Russian conscripts who don't want to be there fighting a war they don't understand for a state that treats them like dogshit. In WWII they found their spirit when they were fighting to save Russia itself. That's a way easier argument to make when Hitler lays siege to Leningrad than it is when it's just the state media saying that the Nazis have taken over Ukraine.'cuz here's the thing: the fierce ex-soviet war machine ain't lookin' so fierce.