Yeah. Enforcing a "no-fly" zone over Ukraine would require shooting down Russian planes. Russia would perhaps rightfully see that as an act of war by the West, and then the nukes would definitely be in play.

It's heart-wrenching to do the calculus and conclude that, globally, we're most likely minimalizing suffering by letting only the Ukrainian people suffer. It feels cowardly. And like Fiona Hill says, Ukraine is undoubtedly not enough for Putin. Ugh.

And yeah, what is the endgame for Putin? Does he really believe that the Ukrainian people will accept a puppet regime, if he even manages to set one up? The solidarity and resolve of the Ukrainians has massively ballooned over the last week, with no chance of waning this side of many years, I think.

Belarusian trolling?

If I'm Putin, and I want to maybe launch nukes, I'd want to at least partially blame someone else. I doubt Belarus has the facilities for ICBM launch, but intermediate yield and range nukes capable of menacing eastern Europe are much more portable. I'm not sure Putin will nuke anywhere he intends on eventually controlling, but who knows, and especially if he gets a bead on Zelensky's exact location, he might be willing to make an exception.