Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking. Login or Take a Tour!
goobster · 940 days ago · link · · parent · post: Global Average Sea Level wager between mk and wasoxygen, to be resolved on January 1, 2040
But isn't it usually the case that forecasts are normally proven wrong, mostly because some unrealized third factor was not considered (or known) at the time the prediction was made? Seems like every day there's a heretofore unforeseen factor that has accelerated metric X beyond initial forecasts, and these forecasts need to be recalculated to account for X, as well. (Ice cap melting speed, foliage regrowth after disasters like Mt St Helens or Chernobyl, etc...) Or is this just my impression, and not reality...? For the record, I am not at all expert in sea level change. I’m entering the bet on the basis that your forecast appears to exceed most official projections, which if anything have a tendency to exaggerate the threat IMO.