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Devac  ·  1063 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: NIH Director: We Need an Investigation Into the Wuhan Lab-Leak Theory

    Make Uncertainty Sexy Again, when appropriate.

    Too bad that position almost always pits us against pretty much the entire establishment and the idiots shouting the loudest.

It helps to not see it as "us vs the idiots." Part of the problem is scientists using hermetic lingo like "reasonably supported" or "within measurement error" to describe results with certainties over 4 sigmas. There's an instinctual need to precisely qualify this shit and won't even say our shoes are tied without checking each foot twice, but expecting anyone to be on the same wavelength here is a game lost at a start. That's like a lawyer being exasperated with 'the stupids' who need word salads like "appeal to reject motion was positively passed with a negative result" explained. Any random event defying a four sigma-strong hypothesis is about as likely as getting a straight flush, but nobody says it like that.

For what it's worth, I'm mostly lost enough to just belive what b_b or c_hawk say on the topic, but I'd be way more sceptical if I didn't know (trust?) they know their shit.