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kleinbl00  ·  1735 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Fall of Wuhan

If you look up "COVID-19 R0" you'll get a number between 2 and 2.8 (although LANL calculated 4.7-6.6 based on cell-phone data). If you look up "influenza R0" you'll get a number between 1 and 1.3.

If you look up "influenza mortality rate" you'll get about 20 per 100k or about 0.02%. If you look up "COVID-19 mortality rate" you'll get around 2%.

That was a week ago, though - my read of the tea leaves is that COVID-19 is more transmissive than 2.2 but substantially less lethal than 2%. However, I'm a guy on the internet with a theory, not an epidemiologist. Nonetheless, we're still probably looking at a particularly nasty flu season.