Here's the thing though: you and I knew a vote for Trump was really a vote for the establishment back in 2016. Sure, he mucked about a bit with the executive branch's administration, but his policies pretty consistently tend to favor large corporations and the rich.

Right. We weren't going to vote for him anyway. We weren't going to vote for the Republicans regardless. We had to be talked into holding our noses and voting for Hilary, the most establishment candidate in the history of establishment candidates (barring Biden). But the whole world spent 2016 arguing Donald Trump had no business running for president.

But if people still believe he's the protest vote, the underdog, in 2020, they'll still vote for him even if their life has gotten worse since 2016 because it's better than the Dems winning.

...is it better than not voting?

More people turned out to flip Congress blue than turned out to punish Johnson for the Civil Rights Act. We're not talking about people "stepping back, taking an evenhanded look at policy, and basing their vote on that". We're talking about people endorsing the past four years enough to take time off work to sign their name to it.

Or, alternatively, doing the same to say "this stops now."

I'm not saying it's in the bag. I'm saying that the dynamics at play are not necessarily the ones people keep bringing up and fatigue is definitely setting in at the Trump rallies.