Important to note:
It's the 25th anniversary of Waco, but the 26th anniversary of Ruby Ridge and the 24th anniversary of the OKC bombing.
It's also plausible that both Ruby Ridge and Waco went sideways because of one particular sniper.
For the five months following the Waco inferno, Timothy McVeigh worked at gun shows and handed out free cards printed with Horiuchi's name and address, "in the hope that somebody in the Patriot movement would assassinate the sharpshooter". He wrote hate mail to the sniper, suggesting that "what goes around, comes around". McVeigh considered targeting Horiuchi, or a member of his family, before settling on a bombing attack on a federal building - choosing to target the Murrah Building.
No shots were fired at the Bundy Ranch because the ATF and the FBI had learned just how quickly things go from "shots fired" to "bloodbath" to "reprisal" from the Holy Trinity of patriot conspiracy: Ruby Ridge, Waco and OKC.