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kleinbl00  ·  2315 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: "This is why they hate us" - The Other Tech Bubble

Put on your tinfoil hat for a minute. "Tyler Durden" sure ain't Ben Bernanke but they occasionally find some interesting charts and graphs.

Here's what I know: when you can't make your yields with safe bets, you make riskier bets and the safe bets right now aren't making yields. If the whole world is used to 3% and the whole world is making 1.4%, the whole world starts buying junk. I also know that a horrifying percentage of the daily float is algorithmic and an even more horrifying percentage is in dark pools. LTCM was an object lesson in systemic risk; the 2007 bailouts were an attempt to learn from that lesson that assumed as baseline the interconnectedness of the financial system.

And I would argue it's gotten worse, not better. The market thinks Tesla is worth $57b. Tesla loses about $4 a share. What happens when God snaps his fingers and says "Wake the fuck up you lemmings"?

There was a point where banks proved mathematically that it made sound business sense to lend money to people who probably couldn't pay their mortgage. That shook out a lot of shit. I particularly enjoyed how hard Washington Mutual lobbied to make discharging credit card debt impossible... thereby encouraging their customers to pay their $10k credit card balances at the expense of their $250k mortgages. "Shareholder value" is a toxic enough philosophy. "Go fast and break things?"

Alphabet is at a thousand dollars a share. It made $28b last quarter. $25b of that is ad revenue. They're rolling out native adblocking and a non-profit started making a better browser.

If Lehman was a sand castle the tech industry is a house of cards on a shaky table on the San Andreas fault and the winds are picking up. I think that when it goes, it's gonna rip.