I don't think I am well-informed enough to have a confident opinion.

My default expectation is that things will go on about the same as they have been going, which seems to mean that cooperation and bonhomie will be roughly proportional to visibility: conspicuous coordination in space, begrudging tolerance and sniping in official channels, rivalry and maneuvering in proxy war states, and unrestrained battle in arms racing and cyberwarfare.

While I was bottom-feeding on music videos and dashcam highlights recently, YouTube recommended something a little different: a speech Putin gave to some wonks at an economic forum. I was rather surprised to see the evil empire cartoon strongman speak in calm, measured tones, telling a version of history from the other side of the curtain. It's hard to know how to parse a prepared talk from a KGB man, but if his goal was to unsettle the audience with the image of a reckless bully upsetting delicate balances and toying with disaster, it worked; I was unsettled. (There is some analysis here and there and at that other place, all at standard Internet quality.)

We don't worry about the Bomb very much anymore. Well, most of us. It's hard to judge the risk of unlikely events with very large consequences. I haven't seen good evidence that our next commander in chief is more likely than his opponent to stumble into apocalypse. It's hard to know how to parse bluster and bloviating too.

If there is any signal to read amid all the noise, it seems to indicate that Russian leadership favored this outcome. I don't know if there was a "personal beef" (as was certainly true among many voters) or if Trump seemed more friendly, or manageable, or if it was thought that he would weaken a superpower rival. Maybe they thought it would be good for a laugh (or лулз?).

We haven't had a world war all century and it would be nice to keep it that way.

What do you think?