I didn't really expect people to read this...
Some excerpts:
- The proportion of counties seeing negative business establishment growth during
periods of national expansion has increased steadily over the past three recoveries.
Over the first five years of the 1990s recovery, 17 percent of counties continued to see
net declines in business establishments. From 2002 to 2006, that figure rose to 37
percent — and had more than tripled to 59 percent by the 2010s.
- The U.S. economy is becoming far more reliant on a small number of super-performing
counties to generate new businesses. A mere 20 counties accounting for only 17 percent
of the U.S. population were responsible for half of the net national increase in business
establishments from 2010 to 2014.
- As with business establishments, the geography of job growth has narrowed from
one recovery to the next. Following the 1991 recession, only 14 percent of counties
continued to post job losses over the course of the next five years. That proportion
rose to 28 percent in the 2000s and to 31 percent in the 2010s (three-quarters of
which lost population at the same time). In other words, the share of U.S. counties
participating in national jobs recoveries has fallen from 86 percent in the 1990s to
72 percent in the 2000s and only 69 percent in the 2010s. The share of the country’s
population living in bypassed counties varied but was relatively low in each period:
During both the 1990s and 2010s recoveries, 11 percent of the population lived in
counties that continued to lose jobs. Over the 2000s, when manufacturing
employment losses pummeled more populous corners of the Great Lakes, more
than one in five Americans lived in counties that were bypassed by the national jobs
recovery.
- Over prior recoveries, large counties did not play a central role in delivering the
country’s employment growth. This is no longer the case. The most populous U.S.
counties — those with over one million people — created 3.3 million jobs over the
2010s recovery, more than any other size class of counties and more than twice as
many jobs as they created over each of the two prior recoveries. By contrast, counties
with under 100,000 people collectively created fewer than one million new jobs in the
2010s — substantially fewer than 2.5 million they created from 1992 to 1996 and the
1.2 million new jobs they created from 2002 to 2006. As a result, the 2010s recovery
has served to accelerate a shift in the country’s economic gravity towards populous
counties after decades of decentralizing growth that spread economic activity to more
locales.