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blackbootz  ·  3080 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post:

I know that the Master Plan part one was in a lot of ways technically easier and more feasible than part deux, but still. I can't help but let my imagination run wild -- and I can't wait for 5 or 8 or 10 years from now.

    We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.

6 billion miles / 3 million miles = 2000 days or 5.5 years before 6 bil miles is reached (that's assuming that no additional cars are deployed, which is unlikely, though it's also assuming that the 6 billion miles figure is a valid figure... and who knows how long the regulatory challenges will take).

    It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.

kleinbl00, I recall you taking some umbrage with Tesla's adding the beta tag to Autopilot -- it's, among other things, a way for them to avoid legal liability, right? While that's true, does this argument that Musk et al make carry any legitimacy for you? Or is this just more defensive marketing/obfuscation?