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snoodog  ·  886 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Fivethirtyeight: How I acted like a pundit and screwed up on Donald Trump

Mish has a pretty good rebuttal to silver. https://mishtalk.com/2016/05/19/nate-silvers-self-serving-confession-reflections-on-being-wrong/

He basically fudged his own models to get the result that he though was right, and then he got it wrong... At the end of the primary cycle the fudging became so egregious that other people were calling him out since his numbers made no sense. I'm sure the mainstream press will forgive him but I dont think we as smart educated people should be so quick to do so.