1) I believe we're speaking at cross-purposes. If Sanders loses the nomination, I don't expect him to run as an independent. I expect him to basically become a PAC, a la Avaaz or MoveOn. It is my opinion (and the opinion of a lot of clever people) that Sanders ran primarily to shape the narrative; winning the nomination would be icing on the cake but not the whole goal of his campaign.
2) I coulda sworn you were up in Seattle somewhere, so the wager should have been a beer. But again, I don't think we're on opposite sides on this.