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kleinbl00  ·  3123 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Doug Kass: A Case For Sitting On Cash In 2016

The argument of the article is basically "our bull market can't continue" without noticing that "our bull market" has been flat since 2014. The argument is basically that because money has cost essentially nothing to lend or borrow, making money by lending money has become impossible and the risk of borrowing money has dropped to nothing therefore something something ball of flame. The Sandy Coufax jibe is a clumsy swipe at "quantitative easing" which is "the government shoves piles of money into the banking system to make it easier for people to lend and borrow" because Ben Bernanke wanted to stave off another Great Depression so badly that he brought up Milton Friedman's "helicopter drop" of cash thus earning him awesome cartoons like this:

Thing is, 70% of the world's money is currently under negative interest rate policy. Japan, Germany, France, Switzerland, all are charging banks money for lending it out and we still don't have the bottom in sight. It's also assuming that at some point the Fed will go "whelp, that didn't work, back to business as usual!" and raise interest rates and crush the economy because something something reasons.

The bottom line is this, though: the Fed has made cash far more available than ever before in an attempt to get companies to invest and spend and do economics-ey things. What they've done instead is buy back their own shares. This is corporations effectively inflating their own stock price which is a whole 'nuther discussion, but one in which it does make sense to be skeptical of investment possibilities. My beef is that the time to go to cash was a couple years ago, there have been no real signals that now is a better time than later, and if you're going to cash, you're giving up on dividends which are actually pretty goddamn healthy right now.

I'm pretty much in cash and long-term dividend-bearing government ETFs right now, but I'm not expecting to stay there for the rest of the year.