I think your supposition about the inevitable regulation of pot has a cogent and sequential logic to it that makes it easier for me to critically think about such a complex topic. One of the arguments that I hear for legalization is that the government can tax it and make money on it, which I used to think was a good point, but then that starts us down your rabbit hole of the government as potential dealer. Reminds me of Chris Rock's brilliant rant on doctors and drugs. Let me say that I am absolutely for the legalization of pot. I think a more libertarian stance on drugs in the U.S. would send a message that the country believes strongly in giving it's citizens personal freedom and choice. It would also, like you said, lower the number of incarcerations and maybe even make people feel safer in their own neighborhoods - which would be the ultimate benefit.

Quick little story: In Vancouver, with it's famous BC Bud, there is a little area called the Downtown Eastside (DTES). I went to school right in the center of it all, in a ground floor studio with huge windows you could look out to see some crazy shit. The DTES has a highly concentrated amount of dealer, users, homeless, and prostitution. It's where Robert Pickton not long ago did his dirty work. It is also home to North America's one and only safe injection site. Anyway, On the first day of school the prof stands up, welcomes us all, and the first thing he says is 'don't be scared of what you see out there, they will not hurt or harass you, and they are no different than us, just move along and you'll be fine.' The thing is he was totally right. It is safe (unless you're an idiot). Granted it sucks to see that lifestyle , but the truth is that it is going to exist anyway and the benefit of allowing it to happen in the open is that these people get regular treatment. I can walk through there at 2 in the morning and be fine. Usually the people are so sedated that they don't even know what's going on. I'm getting off track. My point is that there are potentially all kinds of benefits to having a more liberal agenda towards drugs. You won't get less crackheads, but you will get less violent crime. And that's huge.

Going back to regulation, I'm not so convinced that a complete government stranglehold on pot would happen. I think the small batch pot head would really make that impossible. Sure, tobacco is like you said before, but I've never met anyone who grows their own tobacco yet I've met a ton of dudes that have had one or two plants. Weed is just so easy because it's like growing basil - pluck the bud off and smoke that shit. Easier than alchohol too. I also think the typical anti-government pot smoker might stay a little savvy as to how their particular herb blend is grown and produced. Of course this doesn't address the medical side of weed which is maybe more where you were coming from...