- “Euroland is headed for a recession,” Carl Weinberg, the chief international economist at High Frequency Economics, a research consulting firm in White Plains, N.Y., said in an email Friday. “All the writing is on the wall.” Mr. Weinberg cited numerous indicators of trouble: less production at eurozone factories, surveys showing increasing gloominess among business managers and a contraction in global trade
GDP of Germany: $3.7T (2017)
GDP of Spain: $1.3T (2017)
GDP of Greece: $0.2T (2017)
GDP of Europe: $19T (2019)
If Germany's economy declines 5%, it has declined the amount of the entire Greek economy. This is one reason the Greeks were pretty strident during their financial crisis; the amount of money they lacked was crippling for them and irritating for the Germans.
A five percent decline in Germany is a one percent decline in the broader Eurozone. It's been suggested that the European Union was a back-handed way of ensuring continued German superiority by locking the currency float. The numbers certainly support it. If Germany is in decline (and make no mistake: Germany is in decline), then the European Union is in decline.
I hadn't picked up yet on Germany's decline. Germany's wellbeing is of particular interest to me, as it's our biggest export partners at 22% of total exports. So my response to the title (which is how it was printed and how I came across it) was akin to "what? fuck no".
It feels like we're on thin ice at the moment, and an article like this is one of those loud cracks in the ice that may or may not be the last one before we'll fall through.
The economic indicators on Germany aren't subtle. Do a Google Image search for "dailyshot germany".
Everyone seems to be waiting for some sort of official recession signal without recognizing that nobody ever says "we're in a recession" they say "turns out we've been in a recession for the past six months."