I wasn't expecting a resounding 'yes'. I thought the author might be inclined to think that way, based on the last part: Great Britain was an undisputed global superpower in the last quarter of the 18th century and almost squandered its position through a series of expensive missteps. Though the U.S. eschews the trappings of empire, its global power over its rivals is no less significant than Britain’s was a couple hundred years ago. What’s more, its missteps share striking similarities with those of the British at the end of the 18th century. The most likely scenario is that, like the British Empire before it, the United States muddles through and comes out more powerful than before for a long stretch until it enters a secular decline – all the while believing it is truly exceptional, right up to the very end. But on second read I'm not sure if he expects the US to get better (short-term more powerful than before?) or not (long term decline). Personally I tend to eschew fatalism, as it's never very productive. I still believe there are ways out (e.g. Piketty's progressive tax), but I don't think they are anywhere within reach in the current political climate.In the meantime, if history is any indication, the political polarization in the U.S. will get worse before it gets any better, and until the country has addressed its underlying economic problems, demagogues and political parties on all sides will continue to look for the issues that most inflame the passions to distract from the system’s failings.
Jared Dillian has been advocating his clients prepare for socialism because pendulum swings are a way of life and things are pretty rightward at the moment. Claire Wolfe said "America is at that awkward stage where it's too late to work within the system and too early to shoot the bastards" in 1996. I think there are three aspects that argue for American exceptionalism: 1) No historical basis for ethnic strife. Yeah it sucks to be black in the US but blacks are 12% of the population and in nearly all of the country are fully integrated into society. Europe has no blacks. America has been settled by wave after wave of migrants while Europe consistently fights them as invaders and denies them citizenship. I grew up in the heart of 400-year-old ethnic enmity (which is tough to do in a 240-year-old country) and it was basically two groups of poor people giving each other traffic tickets with increased regularity. Ain't nobody got no scores to settle over Cyprus. 2) No dynasties. Wealth in the US tends to be cyclical with few families retaining it for three generations. "Vanderbilt" is still a name but Gloria Vanderbilt makes jeans for old ladies, she doesn't overthrow the government of Panama to make transoceanic shipping cheaper. 3) A generally nomadic population. "Roots" in the US means raising your kids in the house your parents left you. American families will routinely criss-cross thousands of miles for employment, education and other opportunities. These three things bust up most of the tendencies towards localism. They prevent a permanent rentier class from taking hold. But they don't prevent it completely. There's going to be a backlash. I expect it to be ungainly. And I expect it to be a ways off because things are going to get worse before they get better.