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comment by mk
mk  ·  2856 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Does it make sense right now to buy ETH or BTC?

    However, if you want to make $$$ into $$$$ than you should just invest in a diversified stock portfolio and expect a 5 to 10 percent increase per year over the course of a few decades. Do not panic, do not sell, do not try to game the market, do not do anything but wait.

I agree with this advice with the caveat that there is much evidence to suggest a better entry point may be coming in the next year or so. If the plan is to start a monthly deposit, then no big risk of starting now. But, if pabs wanted to drop a chunk of money down upfront, he might consider waiting for the next recession/correction, which come in cycles that we haven't yet been able to escape.

I got very lucky by starting to invest in earnest in 2009. Had I started in 2007, my portfolio would have less than half the value it has now.

BTW, I wish the US treated ETH and BTC as currencies.





bioemerl  ·  2856 days ago  ·  link  ·  
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bioemerl  ·  2856 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I agree with this, I'm both sad and glad I'll be really entering the job market and staring to have invest-able income in the next few years.

ThurberMingus  ·  2856 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Can you give a short summary of the evidence you see for an impending recession?

It's hard to weigh effects and sort the information out of the permanent "dim and gloom" background noise.

mk  ·  2856 days ago  ·  link  ·  

An extended drop in industrial production without recession seems very unlikely:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO

Shiller P/E is well above the historic mean:

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

Corporate buybacks are dropping, and dividend cuts are rising:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-16/bull-market-losing-biggest-ally-as-buybacks-fall-most-since-2009

It is all very suggestive of the end of a credit cycle.

ThurberMingus  ·  2856 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Thanks. I hadn't seen the industrial production data before.