It's gonna take a while, I'm afraid. While one of the insights I gained last year from doing my thesis was exactly what you mention (AV's creating all in-between forms of transport), that still likely manifests itself after we know what's the best way to make vehicles drive themselves. There is a path dependency there that might have major implications further down the road. The first big success is likely going to dominate the field because it is so difficult to get up to that level of safety standards. Not saying that it isn't also a very interesting and Big Question - just that I think the machine intelligence sets the precedent. I DO! I just totally missed that article. My second choice of thesis topics is to investigate the benefits of quay-to-customer or quay-to-warehouse full automation for the harbor of Rotterdam, which already has a fully automated port.Get used to that - it's going to happen more and more often.
NOBODY CARES.
Well... I dunno. There's going to be patchwork acceptance, and there's going to be conflict, and then there's going to be a working group and standards and public input periods and we'll still end up with an "open" standard like docx except it'll cost $8k to implement per vehicle. I think our fundamental disagreement is that I don't think there is a "best" way for AVs to drive themselves. I think there are probably several approaches that can be made to work, depending on environment, and I think that the bigger you are now, the more likely you are to be able to force your approach. Even then, it's a gamble. Sony lost Betamax but won CD and BluRay. And this battle is going to dwarf those. There is a path dependency there that might have major implications further down the road. The first big success is likely going to dominate the field because it is so difficult to get up to that level of safety standards. Not saying that it isn't also a very interesting and Big Question - just that I think the machine intelligence sets the precedent.