Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking. Login or Take a Tour!
illasinsick · 4371 days ago · link · · parent · post: Why You Won’t Be the Person You Expect to Be
I think the problem in prediction is the sheer wealth of possibilities. While it's easy to say "I will likely change a lot in the next decade", it's hard to say how, or even in what areas. Because there are so many potential changes in different directions, accurate prediction is effectively impossible. Attempting to average out the varying possibilities leaves a notable lack of changes. Similarly to how, when flipping a coin 10,000 times it is unlikely to get exactly 5000 heads and 5000 tails, it's unlikely for you to end up very similar to how you currently are, the expected value is still in the middle. Any preparations we can make can only be based on what knowledge we currently have not the least of which is who we currently are.