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user-inactivated  ·  476 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: November 9, 2022

    Whitmer won big for the same reason DeSantis did in FL, which is that things are good and getting better for almost everyone.

This is a month old statement, but it’s been on my mind enough… I hope you give the following some credence from a FL native who wants to add some color to why DeSantis won. Things are getting better, sure. Though, I’d add that the Dems have not done well to campaign in Florida for a loooong time. Long enough that the time fight back now includes a couple decades-worth of gerrymandering in what is generally more a center-of-right (dare-I-say purple) state than many would like to believe when looking at Presidential/Gubernatorial election maps.

Why do I say this?

1. Val Demings was a Dem running against Marco Rubio this year. Val Demings is a SUPERB candidate that has gotten more grassroots funds to kick off the election campaign that Rubio was sending pleas out for additional donations a couple months before November. The issue was Demings was the only stellar candidate the Dems put up for higher office in Florida. Nikki Fried was the only other Dem with “name recognition” (due to having her name on every gas station pump as head of FL Dept. of Ag.). Nikki? She was running against Charlie Crist (more on them next). If Dems put half the effort and resources as with Warnock, Rubio would have his butt outta Tallahassee, easily.

But, the lack of resources is a symptom of the larger issue. I got 2 texts a day from Republicans, without exaggeration, leading up to the election since September. Democratic campaigns sent me 3… total. Mind you, I have only lived and registered in “blue” counties throughout my times in South, Central, and North Florida. I still get texts from districts I’m not registered in, for Republican campaigns.

2. Now, if we ignore the lack of Democratic presence outside the Gubernatorial race: Nikki Fried was an alright candidate with a horrid campaign management that would lash out at other democratic campaigns during primaries without provoking… and Nikki herself was taking donations from all the wrong PACs (looking at your FP&L). Her messaging was more progressive, but behind the scenes, Charlie Crist had the endorsements from Progressives that Nikki’s didn’t (Planned Parenthood for one).

That being said, Nikki Fried vs Charlie Crist was a tough match up that people hope would prove better for the state. But when it really comes down to it, DeSantis leveraged quarantine to pull a publicity stunt to turn heads in the GOP. Ever since, he’s been acting as though he had a mandate in 2018 (for the record, it wasn’t a mandate). As such, Florida’s gotten redder with over a million people coming to a “Free” state with no income tax and low cost of living. So, the GOP machine has been pivoting to DeSantis from Trump as the 2024 heir apparent as J6 settled.

Now, Crist won the Primary against Fried. Crist has also lost elections as a Republican, Independent, and Democrat - and he’s the best the Dem’s could be bothered to put up against Ron DeFuture?

Hell, pitting Trump against DeSantis would have been an easy slam dunk to discourage MAGA heads from voting for DeSantis and his endorsements.

Well

A month late for quite possibly a throwaway statement, though I didn’t expect to have that tidbit in my brain that long. Hope the nuance answers some questions (or leads you and others to seek out answers) in 2024 when we’re all getting berated by DeSantis’s presidential campaign. ‘Cuz dollars to donuts, this time next year, that ship will have left dock already and all the punditz will keep reminding us how far it’s sailed until November 2024.

TL;DR, there’s a bit more at play internally here in the Sunshine State. A lot of it having to do with a lack of support from the DNC in what has been a salvageable vote until seemingly very recently.