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Interesting. Pete Riley suggested a 12% chance of Carrington class event between 2012 and 2022 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011SW000734 Whereas another group says around 1% between 2019 and 2029 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38918-8 I'm going to take the average and say 6%. TIL that near solar maxima, the Sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima, there is about one CME every five days.