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We have an electoral college/popular vote pool at work. I think Obama will lose Florida, and probably Iowa or Colorado, but take Ohio. For one important reason, there's a lot of auto and auto supplier folk in Ohio, and the difference between Obama and Romney on the bailout does resonate. No doubt the enthusiasm for Obama is lower. Mine is lower. But, unless something crazy happens in the debates or in the next month, I can't see Romney pulling it off. Romney has his own enthusiasm issues, and his sell to the independents has been very inconsistent. I think it will be closer than polls suggest, however.