China isn't going to take Taiwan militarily.

Military action fucks up all the money being made. Before 2016 I'd argue that the US and China won't ever go to war because the $2 Trillion or so in mutual trade would evaporate before the first shells hit their targets. Besides, you and I know how that war would go. War declaration, big naval battle, second big naval battle or maybe a massive air campaign, then the loser of that second battle lobs nukes. War over in a week. Rats and cockroaches left to celebrate victory.

But I can see them arranging the world around Taiwan such that annexing them and turning them into a Hong Kong/Macau special economic zone is the only viable way forward.

Yea, sort of where I see it as well. All they have to do is wait it out, and the Chinese have a habit of doing just that. Economies hate uncertainty. If the Chinese can find a way to not screw up the mess going on now in Hong Kong, they may have an "in" when it comes to talks with Taiwan over the Trump Presidency years. We have docs from Hong Kong and Taiwan in the hospital complex and I'd love to have the time to get to hang out with them and see where their heads are at.