a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment
Robert_B_Marks  ·  2760 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Why Donald Trump may have won the first Presidential Debate

First off, I'm not an American, I'm a Canadian. I have also clearly stated that I consider Trump to be extremely dangerous, and that I thought that Clinton was a better candidate for the office. While I did not take any position in the article, I am very much hoping that Trump doesn't come within a hundred miles of winning this race.

Second, you are free to disagree with me if you wish. You are free to attack my ideas to your heart's content. Do not EVER attack my person, or put words in my mouth (frankly, you are exceedingly bad at mind-reading).

Now, onto your points.

You are correct about Trump probably alienating core Republicans. What makes him dangerous, however, is that his appeal is to those who have lost faith in the system as a whole, hence his repeated systemic attacks in place of solid policy statements. This means that people who would probably not come out to vote if an established politician had won the nomination may very well come out to vote this time. Consider this: Congress' approval rating in August was at 18%, and it hasn't broken past 24% since 2011...and these are sustained historic lows (source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx). The American voter turnout in 2014 was the lowest in over 70 years, with a national average of 36.3% (source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/12/opinion/the-worst-voter-turnout-in-72-years.html). These are signs of a massive loss of faith in the political system, including a loss of faith that the people inside that system can turn it around.

Trump isn't trying to appeal to the 36.3% of voters who still have enough faith in the system to vote - moreover, he probably doesn't care about the Republicans in that number who will stay home in 2016 because he has alienated them. He's gambling that he can mobilize enough of the 63.7% who stayed home to win the election by presenting himself as the clever outsider who can tear down a broken system. If he succeeds in that, this election will be quite winnable for him.

Also, I don't think you understand what "disruption" means in this context. "Disruption" in this context means forcing your opponents to abandon their own ground and try to compete with you on yours in such a way where they lose if they don't. When McGuinty did it in Ontario, the Eves Conservatives looked out of touch by relying on their tried and true negative campaign strategy, which had won at least two prior elections (oh, and by the way, just because Ontario doesn't have a huge population doesn't mean there aren't lessons to be learned from its elections - we have a democratic system up here too, you know). Clinton is waging a standard political campaign, pitched at mobilizing her core base of Democrat voters - Trump is NOT. He's pitching his message at an entirely different group of people.