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blackbootz  ·  3085 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: A New Hobby of Mine: PredictIt, a prediction market

I've spent 50 dollars. I'm at $112, with $20 still invested that's worth $15 (shares in a market I bought are now priced lower). This represents maybe 8 hours or so of checking and refreshing the site and researching over the last two weeks. Which isn't to say that I view the thing as a ten dollar an hour job, which is maybe what I'm making if I divide my profit by labor. This is really enjoyable to me. Especially the time that I spend geeking out about it with a friend. And now that I'm playing with the house's money, it's easier to stomach losses. I do acknowledge though that I'm mainly benefitting from some luck and gut thinking, not that I'm some Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind. There's just a lot of panic activity on the site that I am the beneficiary of. Supposedly the primaries were this free for all. Michigan and Indiana saw a lot of money change hands.

Also, fucking Trump and his supporters.

Take this market for example. The odds of GOP victory in the presidential election are slim, let alone a 370 vote landslide. Here's a potential map of that, and it would take a miracle. Even if Hillary makes a series of massive gaffes (and one would think it would take much more than just that), there is a 99%+ of her winning California and New York, so Trump has to sweep pretty much the rest of the United States. Yet, here's this market buoyed by Trump fanatics saying that there is an 11% chance of a GOP 370 landslide. So if you have any money you'd like to see grow 11%, you can dump it all in this market and wait till election day.