Yes, I think you are right. It is unlikely that GS is sharing an existential crisis. It seems that GS is saying that earnings are going to be coming down, and if they don't, then look out for flying butt monkeys. On a related note, I just read a FT article talking about what high yield spreads mean, and there is some discussion about the last 5 times that spreads hit these levels: 90', 98', 01', 08', and 11'. In 98' and 11' they tightened and everything was swell, and the other three times they spiked, and everything was bad. The article says this time looks like the bad three, because 98' and 11' were due to environmental factors leading to overpricing (in 98' it was Asian FX crisis and Russian default, and in 11' it was Greece threat to the Euro). In the GS margins graph, the three bad times are all followed by margin drops. Due to the reality of "ongoing consolidation in industries, cost deflation, and tighter purse strings", I think this makes an even stronger case that 16' is one of those bad spread times.