You are forgetting one thing: turnout. Look at the crowds Sanders is generating. People into Sanders are excited about him. That excitement, and the narrative that they are fighting against 'the system' is going to push people to the voting booth. Obama won because people were excited about him. Kerry lost because he was boring as sin and nobody was thrilled to have him on the top of the ticket. People waited 12 hours in voting lines to vote for Obama, they did not do that for Kerry. I'm waiting for Trump to flame out, and if he does, and Sanders wins the nomination, Sanders will win just on the excitement and motivation of his core fan base. I don't see anyone on the Republican side right now who can generate the same "wow" that Sanders has. 15 more months of this nonsense. sigh.