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caeli · 3455 days ago · link · · parent · post: Redditor use Bayesian probability to show why "Mass surveillance is good because it helps us catch terrorists" is a fallacy
This is a great breakdown! All too often people fall prey to what's called neglecting the prior or the base rate fallacy. Essentially people equate the probability of detecting a terrorist with the probability that a person is a terrorist given that they've been detected, ignoring the fact that the prior probability of being a terrorist is very low.