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rrrrr · 3981 days ago · link · · parent · post: A treasure from one of my favorite tiny subreddits: May I present the CFR's "Global Conflict Tracker"
That is rated as a moderate probability. You can see this by changing the "Likelihood to occur in 2014" filter on the left. The colours of the markers represent the "Preventive Priority Level" which, as the notes below the map explain, is a combination of likelihood with impact on US interests. The latter is not an impartial measure of impact on the world, but takes into account only whatever the people behind this consider to be "US interests". Not even all Americans would be likely to agree on that.