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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  4758 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Political Climate Ripe For A Third-Party Prospect : NPR
Until the electoral college is abolished, 3rd party candidates will always be the stalking horse of the challenger. The only thing a 3rd party candidate can do is siphon votes away from whatever party they split from.

1912 - Teddy Roosevelt (no slacker of a president) gives the election to Woodrow Wilson:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(United_State...

1948 - Truman narrowly defeats Dewey, thanks to Strom Thurmond and the Dixiecrats:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixiecrat#1948_presidential_ele...

1980 - John Anderson siphons votes from Carter, electing Reagan:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Anderson

1992 - Ross Perot costs GWB re-election:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_presidential_election

2000 - Ralph Nader costs Al Gore the election:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Presidential_Election





o0mrbill0o  ·  4751 days ago  ·  link  ·  
see also, duverger's law, regarding the tendency towards two predominant parties in systems with single member district, first past the post elections.
thenewgreen  ·  4758 days ago  ·  link  ·  
There is no arguing the history, a third party candidate will probably cost someone the election and that person will likely be the candidate they are most akin to. Perhaps the electoral college isn't the only problem. Perhaps it's our conditioned notion that we have 2 choices and we must align ourselves with one of the two even before the fight begins. I think most American's vote this way. I have no idea who I'll support in the upcoming election? Likely, nobody. I may vote.. but "support" means something entirely different.

I'd support "Teddy Roosevelt".

kleinbl00  ·  4758 days ago  ·  link  ·  
I think that "conditioned notion" is much less conditioned than you do. The real issue is that, due to the electoral college, you have to win the whole thing. EVERYWHERE. If you win 80% of the vote in major cities but only 49% of the vote out in bumblefuck South Dakota, you LOSE. It's a ridiculous system, left over from a time when delegates had to travel to conventions because there was no telegraph system to communicate long distances faster than a horse could run. Remember - Al Gore won the popular vote by 2 million votes... but it all came down to what 197 people in Palm Beach thought (or could be forged to think). All this "Iowa caucus" bullshit is wholly related to the antiquated and retarded electoral system we use for national politics, and until that antiquated system is brought up to at least 19th century standards, it will continue to reward the entrenched. That was the whole point - the idea was that "well, yeah, everyone gets a vote but the real decision making will be handled by political insiders."

You want a viable 3rd party? Eliminate the electoral college. Until then, you're playing into the hands of the most cynical guy on the field.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2001889252...

thenewgreen  ·  4758 days ago  ·  link  ·  
I'm with you on all of this except that there does need to be some sort of incentive for our leadership to give a shit about rural America too.... or even less populated cities. I do think that the popular vote is the best indication of who should lead our country, especially since we have "shrunk" in terms of the sharing/distribution of ideas and information.... BUT, I wouldn't like the fact that a candidate could spend ungodly amounts of money in only the key population centers NY, CA, IL, TX, FL and come away the victor.

Does the electoral college suck? Yes, but there is a valid function in there somewhere.

kleinbl00  ·  4758 days ago  ·  link  ·  
No, there really isn't.

There's a reason we have two houses in the legislative branch, one with representatives assigned by population and one with representatives assigned by territory. If you're a state, you get two senators. Period. If you're a state, you get however many congressmen as you're entitled to according to census. Period.

"Congressman Ted Stevens" doesn't get to build a bazillion-dollar "bridge to nowhere." Only Senator Ted Stevens gets to do that.

This is why we have three branches of government: the one that passes the laws is based around the system above. The one that carries out the laws is won by "popular vote." The one that determines whether the laws are fair is appointed by the other two so that they can be "above politics." There isn't anything fundamentally wrong with the way it works other than that an instantaneous national election does not need delegates in order to certify it.

There is no valid function to the electoral college. At all. Presuming there to be one does not make it so.

thenewgreen  ·  4758 days ago  ·  link  ·  
So you don't think there is a value to a citizen of... let's say "Utah" knowing that their President is accountable to their state because their electoral votes are consequential? Otherwise, they are pretty far down the list as far as population goes. I'm not presuming anything, I agree that the electoral college should be done away with. I'm just wondering how then, a state like Utah or Idaho is assured that the leader of the Executive branch takes their interests in to consideration when framing policy directives?

I also agree that the branches of government are set up to address this, the "Senator" Steven's example is a good one. But as you know, the executive tends to set the agenda for congress by use of the bully pulpit.

You know what, now that I think about it... fuck it, abolish it. I have lived in Michigan, Montana and North Carolina. In MI and NC I felt (feel) like I am part of a vibrant political landscape where we have national visibility. In MT, I never felt that. The electoral college never gave us enough "clout" to pull they eye of leadership in our direction.

I guess it poses no benefit. And if you want to see the prez on the campaign trail and you live in Kansas, best get your ass out of Wichita and head to a real city.

kleinbl00  ·  4757 days ago  ·  link  ·  
On the contrary - the current system punishes people in the state of Utah.

Look: Utah has 5 electoral votes. It has a population of 2.7 million people.

California has 55 electoral votes. It has a population of 37 million people.

In order to get Utah's electoral votes, you have to win the popular vote in Utah. Win 50.0001% of the popular vote, and 5 electoral votes are yours - not two and a half. So a democrat is likely to skip Utah entirely, and democratic voters in Utah are going to feel mighty disenfranchised.

In order to get California's electoral votes, you have to win the popular vote in California. Win 50.0000000001% of the popular vote, and 55 electoral votes are yours - not 27 and a half. Where's the population in California? Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, fuck all the rest. Even if Sacramento were to vote 100% republican, there's still no point for any campaigning there because you have to win over Gavin Newsom territory to get the electoral college.

Meanwhile, there's nothing stopping an "electoral voter" from deciding to vote opposite of how his state goes. And hey - Nebraska and Maine distribute their electoral votes according to population, just because. So what you're left with is candidates not giving a shit about Nebraska and Maine because they don't get the whole pie, and candidates not bothering with a state unless it's in question.

Not only does the electoral college pose no benefit, it poses very real detriments. Not only that, but a plurality of people polled have called for it to be abolished... since 1944.

the fact that we're having this discussion at all, in a thread about 3rd party candidates, indicates that ignorance of the process is the biggest issue in elections today. You're a smart guy; you should know this stuff. The fact that you don't illustrates that people don't want you to know how it works.

thenewgreen  ·  4757 days ago  ·  link  ·  
You know, I do know how it works... I've just never really considered the consequences. The 50.00001 example is a good one and is the reason Gore lost the EC but won the popular vote.

I've never voted in a state where the electoral votes didn't go in the direction I'd have wanted them to. Subsequently, I've never considered how disenfranchising it must be to know that your vote counted for nothing, zilch.

I imagine that getting rid of the EC would help stimulate voter turnout too. When you KNOW that your vote could have an impact, you're more likely to participate.

What's the hold up? How could a politician not look good by supporting a popular vote based electoral process?

sounds_sound  ·  4757 days ago  ·  link  ·  
"How could a politician not look good by supporting a popular vote based electoral process?"

That's where the whole discussion of a 3rd party candidate becomes relevant. Politicians are concerned about keeping their seat above all else and so they play the numbers game to skew it in their favor. One interesting thing I've seen in the news lately is the process of Gerrymandering where districts are redrawn in order to pack certain types of voters together in order to control and predict elections more easily. Take a look at these districts and tell me if they seem reasonable:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Illinois_District_4_2004.p... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IL17_109.gif

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering

I'm all about having a third (fourth, fifth) party. And I bet you that when Ron Paul loses the primary, he'll be so heavily persuaded to run as an independent that he just might do it. If that happens he has my vote. I'd really hate to see the EPA go under his watch but that'll probably happen anyway. At least he'll try to get rid of the Fed.

On a side note - living in Canada for that past 4 years has been a real eye opener as to how things could be different. There are roughly 5 parties that all have a fairly strong voice, but what's interesting is how that works at the provincial level where certain parties gain support in some places but don't in others. In Vancouver, the Green party just won a seat (the first in Canadian history I think) because their platform is more sympathetic to British Columbians. Of course Le Bloc Party can only keep power inside Quebec so they can't do shit in the west. I think that if each state in the U.S. starting introducing parties particular to their concerns, then the senate and therefore the country could have a much more interesting and nuanced discussion.

sounds_sound  ·  4757 days ago  ·  link  ·  
This comment has been deleted.
kleinbl00  ·  4757 days ago  ·  link  ·  
The hold up is the Democratic and Republican parties.

Let's say you're running for dog catcher. Nobody knows your name. You're running against someone else for dog catcher. Nobody knows their name, either.

"Dog catcher" is an ostensibly bipartisan office. Let's say you're running on a platform of no-kill shelters and mandatory licensing or something reasonable like that. You don't need a political party. Let's say the other guy, however, declares himself Republican.

So now you're spending your money to get your name out, while your opponent is spending someone else's money. Even if your message makes the most sense, you're going to have to spend more to get it out. Not only that, but when the Republican party sends out a flier telling everyone who to vote for, your name isn't on it.

Extrapolate that from "dog catcher' up to, oh, state senate. Let's presume there are two Democratic candidates, both qualified, both talented, but one wants to, oh, appoint electoral votes based on popular vote rather than winner-take-all. The other guy just wants to get elected.

Who do you think the Democratic party is going to throw their weight behind?

The electoral college turns local politics national. Eliminating it eliminates the local power of national political parties. And national political parties decide races.

"However [political parties] may now and then answer popular ends, they are likely in the course of time and things, to become potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government, destroying afterwards the very engines which have lifted them to unjust dominion."

GEORGE WASHINGTON, Farewell Address, Sep. 17, 1796