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comment by JakobVirgil
JakobVirgil  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What a stupid idea

The funny part is that "this startup is going to fail" is actually a great heuristic for winning a whole lot of bets.

If one could figure out a way to place a bet against the success of each internet venture lots of money could be made.

Youarenotgoingtomakeit.com each new business puts down say 100 dollars saying they will be successful in 5 years (criteria must be met) after that time we cut them a check for $1000. Most fail we pocket the money $$$ heh anyone in?





thenewgreen  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Cut the 5 years down to 1 year, lets come up with some clearly defined metrics for success and I'm in.

JakobVirgil  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

We need to get some real data on failure rate to make sure the house wins in aggregate.

success has to be based on turning a profit.

forwardslash  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Based merely on the business plan of YCombinator I'd say you're on the right track. Basically, Paul's idea is that if you fund 50 startups and only one of them succeeds, the money made off that one success far outweighs the loss from the 49 who failed.

JakobVirgil  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

exactly but we would be evil YCombinator

forwardslash  ·  4214 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I like it.

thenewgreen  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Lets get lunch sometime soon.

JakobVirgil  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I am in Wilmington well in New Hanover county (what is with the german county names in NC) I just got over a horrible plague so anytime sounds good to me. you can meet Marshy and the Baby.

thenewgreen  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'd like that. I may be up there the early part if next week. Ill be in touch.

JakobVirgil  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

cool

thenewgreen  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

We also need to ensure that it's not just the motivated and talented using the site no matter what the rate of success shows.

JakobVirgil  ·  4215 days ago  ·  link  ·  

yeah cuz fuck those guys.