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comment by JakobVirgil
JakobVirgil  ·  4752 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Predictions

Intrade is analogous to that if you add money into the mix. the have the O-man at 63%.





mk  ·  4752 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I suppose so. However, money can complicate things. People buy the odds as well as the outcome.

63%? O-man should send you a X-mas card.

JakobVirgil  ·  4749 days ago  ·  link  ·  

They have a long shot bias (because of folks buying the odds) I think Barry has about a 70% chance of a second term.