Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking. Login or Take a Tour!
wasoxygen · 2753 days ago · link · · parent · post: A New Hobby of Mine: PredictIt, a prediction market
Ah, sorry to hear that you went bust. It's hard to anticipate those edge cases. I like to buy No shares just because there are lots of ways a thing might not happen, but only one way in which it can happen. I just saw a contract on the Treasury's choice of a woman to put on the $10 bill this year. They changed their mind and decided to put Harriet Tubman on the $20 instead, but there were already 10,491 shares circulating for Wilma Mankiller on the ten, which looks like a pretty safe No. I think I have the same tendency toward obsession; if I had serious money in I would be spending too much time on the project.