- This, advocates say, would prove catastrophic. Already, the NIH's spending capacity has dropped more than 20 percent over the past decade as the budget lines have failed to keep up with inflation or been reduced by policies like sequestration. The success rates for applicants has sunk into the teens, and the average age of first-time grant recipients has risen to 43 years old. Had the landscape been this bad when he was first pursuing his studies, Alt said, the possibility of his breakthroughs would have been dramatically diminished.
The situation, at least in terms of mood and anecdotes, is not better in Europe. The west is selling its future as it provides cheap credit to prop up the economy today. I don't know how things could get any worse. A major research group with 100s of members focused on tools and support for other researchers which I just visited in Europe failed to receive a single grant in the last funding cycle. Given my experience in the US over the last half decade I can only see discouragement. For young researchers the success rate is far lower than the quoted 17%, it must be in the low single digits. This hurts, and it wastes a huge amount of effort. As grants get harder to get the number of applicants increases to the point where many good proposals as not funded. The ones that are are basically selected at random, and more likely chosen on the basis of superficial indicators such as the number of high profile publications from the applicant. I personally do not imagine staying in grant funded research. It seem impossible. I am considering industry in a few years when I finish my degree.