thenewgreen is right, I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on this three years later.
Unfortunately, my view hasn't changed. The political will and social impetus for human exploration don't seem any greater, and the nations that are most able are shrinking relevant programs rather than expanding them. The quality of robotics seems to be increasing at an accelerating rate. At the same time, the Mars rovers have demonstrated a great return on investment. Both lines are falling, but I feel that the orange one is doing so more quickly.
I have a more optimistic view of private sector space exploration, but it may be based simply on a lack of recent reading. Private launch companies are using robots/unmanned probes right now, but surely at some point they will branch to manned flights, given that their stated purpose tends to be putting people on Mars for an extended period of time.