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mk  ·  1295 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

The model’s default assumes only 10% of positive cases are tested. That’s a big driver of these numbers. You could test this model with random spot testing.

It’s possible that 20% of the US has contracted it. If 6M cases have been reported, and only 10% are tested, then 60M have contracted it thus far. My guess us that it’s lower, like the 20% tested setting.