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comment by uhsguy
uhsguy  ·  1295 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

Because even if you believe the high 7% number it’s an intermediate step in the risk equation and not a relevant value you should be making any decision on. Also this assumption would mean that 20% of the US had had covid





am_Unition  ·  1295 days ago  ·  link  ·  

What monetary value do you ascribe to living (vs. dying) in the "costs" section of the risk equation?

Just trying to do some basic economics maths.

mk  ·  1294 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I don’t think uhsguy means monetary value, but a numerical value in the risk equation.

mk  ·  1294 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The model’s default assumes only 10% of positive cases are tested. That’s a big driver of these numbers. You could test this model with random spot testing.

It’s possible that 20% of the US has contracted it. If 6M cases have been reported, and only 10% are tested, then 60M have contracted it thus far. My guess us that it’s lower, like the 20% tested setting.

uhsguy  ·  1294 days ago  ·  link  ·  

If you take that assumption you need to put it both in the numerator and the denominator and it cancels out. Because it means that there were 10x more cases but the complications were therefore 10x less likely. Hence why you need to look at a value like %chance of death or %chance of covid complication to decide risk.

mk  ·  1294 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Risk in untested (which are probably mild or asymptomatic) could also include long-term unknown complications as well as the risk of transmitting to someone else.