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Ideas are the product of people. It seems that in the scenarios given everyone in the scientific community would know who's ideas they were "betting" either for or against. If scientists in 1915, were wagering on the validity of continental drift, people would immediately know they were betting for or against that "loon", Wegener. I'm just pointing out that there isn't any anonymity. I'm all for a system that funds based on the continuation of "good ideas", it would beat a system based on cronyism any day. That is, unless your one of the cronies.