Perch Perspectives is worth reading

Based on our analysis, we thought Russia’s troop build-up and military exercise on the border with Ukraine was an attempt to create political leverage over Ukraine to guarantee Kyiv’s neutrality and stop the Ukrainian government from becoming closer with the EU, NATO, and the U.S.. Russian expansion would be best served by political guarantee, not at gunpoint. We even featured two experts on our podcast – fan-favorite Cousin Marko Papic, and Russian geopolitical analyst Max Suchkov – both of whom thought a Russian invasion was outlandish. We set the probability at 70 percent chance of political resolution and 30 percent of a large-scale Russian invasion.