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veen  ·  50 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First.

    Indicator 5: Choose Your Favorite

If I can add my own favourite tea leaves - is it common to talk about business cycles in your neck of the woods? There's this dope business cycle tracer that is published by the Dutch Bureau of Statistics, tracking growth and decline in the dozen major categories of (Dutch) business. It's fascinating to play with the time slider and see the financial criseses of the zeroes demolish the various categories. Up until the previous fall, almost all types of businesses were solidly in the green or orange, but there's been a shift downwards and to the left that I've noticed. The housing market has taken its first minor hit after almost three years of non-stop near-exponential growth.

There are definitely things simmering under the surface, but I'm not convinced we're there yet from my (limited) vantage point. What's Rosenberg's main argument in favor of being in a recession already?