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b_b  ·  3211 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: China's Stock Market Crash, Explained

I think there's a chance that this could be good for the US. China hasn't had to deal with a large scale economic calamity since its middle class has risen. They had a stock market crash in 07-08, and they dealt with it fine, but the forces in that case were mainly external. The US stopped buying their goods temporarily, and their economy suffered as the world's did.

Here, I think the situation is quite different. The US economy is fine. China, however, is slipping, possibly into a real recession. They have had a negative PPI for months on end, and many construction companies, especially those who do business in USD, have gone belly up. These indicators together could signify a step backward for their economy (although the data don't say so, the gov't is full of lies, so I don't trust the official line ever).

The reason people tolerate the regime there is because their economic prospects keep improving. Once that train leaves the station, political unrest is inevitable. Nobody wants to do business in a place with a lot of unrest.

It is easy to envision manufacturing coming back to the US, because of our stability and ability to do more lean manufacturing that didn't exist when most of the offshoring became popular in the first place. Companies could probably score some great PR and government incentives to bring industry back to the US. If the political situation looks untenable in China, then I think there's a decent chance of this happening.