A show of support does not offend me in the slightest.

Things are looking up lately, so I'm feeling that much more envigorated about my prospects again. I could use a prayer about things staying this way, if you have any.

UPDATE 2:

No martial law in Russia as of yet, after Putin's speech today. A lot of whining about how great the USSR was, and a lot of saber-rattling. No clear escalation, though nukes have been mentioned.

kb was quick to reassure me that things don't move quite so fast with tactical nukes, which is a relief to hear. It means we'd get a "warning shot" of sorts.

All in all, this is reassuring so far. I'm gonna have to monitor the situation at the border crossings, where mobilization centers have been erected recently, at least next to most popular routes out of the country. It's an underhanded tactic that's also illegal, in a way that publicly pissed off several public officials as well as Putin himself. So, maybe it goes away with time as the outflow of men of age decreases to certain destinations.

Just wanted to say:

You've been kind to me in this tiny corner of the Internet, many years ago, under a different username. I don't forget that.

It's hard to say anything to that, so: best wishes. Hope you'll be okay soon. Hope you'll find a better path to walk on.

For what it's worth, it'd been a month of utter terror followed by a stay in an unfamiliar country, then months of idling in a big, beautiful city.

In June, my biggest problem was choosing which part of Saint Petersburg to see next. Shit ramped up pretty quick recently.

I've been staying strong for seven months now. What's another few for a full year, eh?

UPDATE 1:

The Russian Ministry of Defense has issued a clarification to all who demand that borders be closed or limited: since this mobilization is partial, the law that would preclude men of conscription age from leaving is not in effect.

In other words, if things keep the way they are, I may be able to legally and successfully cross the border into the EU when my visa comes through.

The clouds on the horizon are Putin's signing the declaration of annexation of the occupied regions of Ukraine tomorrow (September 30th) at 3 PM, Moscow time. Afterwards, he's supposed to give a speech (described as "lengthy" by some Russian sources) afterwards. That speech could include him declaring martial law, which would prohibit men of age from leaving the country, as well as see increased security within the country.

If that doesn't happen, my route into the outside world remains open.

The Constellations — Perfect Day

You will soon be twice as old as me. Congratulations!

My thoughts exactly, on both accounts.

Doing nothing sounds nice. It isn't. Not when it's against your will, that is.

Work, when done purposefully, is not draining.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

Long story short: chances are, I'm stuck in Russia for who knows how long. There are rumors abound that soon, Putin would inact martial law, which would prohibit men of conscription age of leaving Russia. (Right now, some men are stopped at border crossings, but most cross with no problem.)

There's a sliver of hope that my visa will be issued in the shortest amount possible and there won't be martial law in place just yet so that I could cross the border. A sliver of hope. It's been a week since I'd submitted the documents, and the shortest it can take is 2 weeks (the longest is 4 weeks). The annexation of Western Ukraine was supposed to be Putin's cue to announce martial law, but the Kremlin reports that no plans for a speech have been made so far.

So long as things keep to this level, I might be fine.

If that doesn't come to pass, my employer's equipped me with a work laptop, which means I can do remote work for him and earn my salary in earnest. So long as I don't attract attention to myself and avoid being conscripted (either by not having been called on or by evading Putin's goons), I can stay in the country and keep working remotely. That wasn't the plan, but remote dev work has always been in the cards.

I don't want to think about the worst case here.

Right now, I'm okay. Stressed the fuck out, but okay. It would be a blessing for things to stay that way.

Do I infer that you're particularly keen on playing chess?

While I commend the Ukrainian forces for pulling this off in such a spectacular fashion, mentions of a next-year operation to reclaim Crimea reads like horror fiction right now.

> Snowden's lawyer, Anatoly Kucherena, told RIA news agency that his client could not be called up because he had not previously served in the Russian army.

Neither have I, but I sense that if I had to try that in court, I'd be found SOL and sent to the frontline anyway.

Nope, but it's been so kindly explained to her that she can declare yourself the enemy of the state (read: receive the "foreign agent" status) through the National Services website.

You've missed a few steps:

1. Get conscripted

2. Go to Ukraine

3. Be cold and hungry all the time due to a lack of supplies further exacerbated by the sudden influx of troops

4. Don't get permanently disabled on your way to the frontline by a piss-drunk crewmate of yours

5. Keep your mouth shut if you see atrocities committed, because there will be some

6. Dare approaching the frontline with a rusted out old AK or a fuckin' Mosin rifle

7. Find a way to persuade the commander of your military detachment that you won't run at the first opportunity, or get shot at the first sign of looking to defect

8. Somehow manage to find your way to a squad of Ukrainians who aren't eager to tear you to shreds after all the crimes against humanity your "comrades" have committed to their families, friends, and fellow Ukrainians

9. Join other POWs in a camp where you'll likely be staying for months (which is how long Putin intends to go it), and pray that no Z-warriors are there to kill you in your sleep

10. Somehow get either a Ukrainian citizenship or smuggle your old Russian passport in (presuming that the latter still works), in order to be allowed into the EU legally

11. Find a way to contact your friends in Belgium

12. Continue west

13. Wind up in Belgium

14. Pray that your work permit is still valid

15. Start a new life free of Russia

Needless to say, I stand a higher chance of finding a way to get smuggled into the EU than getting there along the frontline.

For what it's worth, I'm currently in the process of frantically looking for a swift way out. Not sure if I'm gonna be able to leave, given the uncertainty about the border rules currently.

My employer's fully behind me, ready to send money "behind the enemy lines" via cryptocurrency. In other words, I'm capable of leaving. Whether I'm able to is a question still in search of an answer.

Please do complain. Your life doesn't have to stop because of me.

I would hope that you're right. I remain optimistic but not hopeful for the near future.

so yeah so

Russia is mobilizing its reservists starting today. Sergey Shoigu, of MoD, said they're looking for 300k reservists, prioritizing those with military experience. The fact is: nothing in the declaration of mobilization makes it partial, limited, or focused. Primarily the focus will be on the poorer Asian-side regions of Russia, but that doesn't mean I'm 100% in the clear if Putin wants more fodder.

There is no clear answer to whether I, a man of conscription age, am allowed to leave the country currenty or whether I will be when the visa comes through. Officially, there is nothing to prevent me. Unofficially, plenty of young men on the social media report being unable to take a train or a plane and leave.

I'm not sure what's going to happen now. No sense to suspect the worst, given that I'm in Saint Petersburg: one of the centers where mobilization will happen last, to avoid a massive increase in unrest. But the uncertainty is a killer of its own kind.

I didn't think it would come to this. Spring of 2022 was full of rumors that all turned out to be empty. I expected it to be the same here, too.

There are protests against mobilization all across Russia. Me, I have to keep my head low and minimize being seen outside... much like the men of the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk.

Not "lowering expectations": "admitting success of the current phase of the operation and scaling down goals to a permanently-sustainable level".

It's like you've never heard the Russian state media spin it. :P That's what they did with the "second phase", aka "getting our asses handed to us properly baked and salted".

Until Putin et al. are out of the seat of power, you will not hear about Russian losses and defeats on state TV. (You are, however, not wrong that the pro-Russian/pro-war Telegram channels started fuming some months ago, and it's getting sulfur-y up in this bitch. They are enthusiast-controlled, and even they can't keep themselves from wondering "what air defense doing??".)

I'm a little whipped up into a frenzy myself, here.

Suddenly, I'm very uncomfortable in this tiny cold apartment.

The same thing happened in the spring. I was mortified by the prospect of being taken away, considering back then everybody knew where I lived, and I couldn't trust my parents not to point in my direction when the servicemen come knocking. Not completely, anyway.

So yeah, chill out, American audience. Ukraine's got this.

But also forgive me for feeling a little selfish in this situation.

Here's what I know:

The failure of the invasion is becoming more and more apparent in Russia. Even pro-war/pro-Putin channels are starting to vent their anger and the impotence of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. With the recent bombings in Crimea (ostensibly a Russian territory where plenty of Russians went on a holiday trip) and the advances of the Ukrainian forces in the occupied Donetsk region (as well as the brewing Kherson offensive), it's becoming clear that Russia is utterly fucked as far as its war goals go.

The analysis I've read so far indicates that even a partial actual mobilization would be a test of the support for the war. If I were an evil asshole in charge of Russia, I'd mobilize from the minority ethnic groups in Russia: Bashkirs, Tuvans, Mordvins etc.. That would alleviate the burden on the white Muscovites and add to the fodder. My understanding is: as long as Putin keeps his military ambitions out of the major centers of the country – Moscow, Saint Petersburg, maybe Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk – white Russians will comply with the "don't rock the boat" doctrine. That's what he's been doing so far; that's why the Bucha massacre was perpetrated by an ethnic-minority batallion.

Full mobilization would likely lead to a sharp increase in unrest (meaning more molotovs in the windows of the conscription centers all of a sudden, among other things), which is horrific for Putin in his already shaky position. It would do nothing to "expose" anything: people here understand it's a war that you're not allowed to call a war. People are scared, but not dumb. Views may differ on who's the bad guy ,but it's clearly a war in everybody's mind at this stage.

Of course, this is all speculation from a guy who reads too much news on the subject.

It would be ironic, in the most bitter way possible, to start doing the work to GTFOut of Russia at the start of the war, only to be thwarted by a madman's last card trick. I would be pissed in Hell if it's bureaucracy that kills me.