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I'm skeptical, because the price of gasoline has proved to be very inelastic. That is, huge price spikes in gasoline don't tend to reduce the amount people drive. I don't know if prices were left high for a long time if habits would change, but at least in the short run, my daily commute is not dependent on how expensive the gas is. If we had a choice of electricity (impossible, obviously, because it's all one grid) from carbon and alternative sources, then perhaps a tax could be very effective.