20 - I know! There's still hope. But what if we all decide to take advantage of anti-aging tech, not out of selfishness but rather curiosity? It's not tenable.
I'm just writing a blog post (it will be up soon ) on global population. Global population is declining (and declining quickly). A recent study concluded that human population should stabilize around 2050 between 8-9 billion individuals. Overpopulation is always what incredulous people say when futurists discuss the possibility of radical life extension. But those people don't realize that the largest demographic shift in human history is already underway and accelerating. Also, if the technology to extend life indefinitely exists... people won't turn it down. Think about the technologies that exist today that enable more people than ever in the history of our species to live into their 80s and 90s. Do any of them say "no it would be selfish to get this heart transplant... just let me die." Hardly anyone. If we develop technologies that allow people to remain healthy and live much longer... no one will turn it down. The result of these transitions will be a human species that have very few children (if any) and live much longer (150-200) and those are conservative estimates.
Wait, wait. Do you mean that the rate of increase of global population is declining? This is the other place you lose me. How do we correlate longer life with fewer children, automatically? Governments worldwide step in? Or the third world catches up to the first world in terms of birth rate? I wouldn't see this happening naturally for hundreds of years.The result of these transitions will be a human species that have very few children (if any) and live much longer (150-200) and those are conservative estimates.
The rate of increase in human population growth peaked in 1962 at 2.2%. It has been declining ever since (currently at 1.1%). All statistical models posit that 2050 will be when we plateau and the whole world will be at replacement level fertility. (Almost done the post detailing the reasons why this is happening). Also, longer life does not directly mean fewer children. However, what is leading to decreasing fertility is not going to go away (again post coming soon). Many people in our generation in developed countries will not have children. This will be the first time this has happened in human history. The more affluent, more urbanized, more educated people become... the fewer children they have. Government do not need to step in for this to happen. This is just how humans do. Of course, this is all contingent on the developing world continuing to develop at their current rates (which would see most people living at developed world standard of living by 2050). I suggest watching some of Hans Rosling's TED talks on future demographics. So I conclude personally that if we continue to decide to procreate way less - and we have technologies that will allow us to live much longer - then we will have a population with longer life and fewer children. Which will allow us to keep a stable population.