A low Natural Increase Rate is characteristic of any “modern” country. This author takes a small peek at economic stressors.
Holy fuck can our greenhouse gasses and energy use drop proportionately? 'cuz that would be AMAZEBALLS I'm not sure how people manage to be freaked out by the coming joblessness due to automation, the coming inequality due to resource depletion, and the coming population crash all at once. Not to put too fine a point on it but if COVID were to wipe out half the population in the world, our energy and water use per person could double without any problems. Probably not the hot take Ryan Cooper was looking for but uhhh there are a whole lot of problems solved through population reduction and "aging out" is far and away the best way to accomplish it.At that point, our population would halve in about one human lifespan.
Something like twenty years ago I watched a Hans Rosling video demonstrating that population decline was not only possible but also inevitable, I've been excited ever since. Almost every thing about the existing systems of economic and social governance hates the idea. It's gonna be a rough decline but if we are anything but our worst selves it's going to make a way better world for people to live in.
Matthew Yglesias of Vox fame has a provocative book called One Billion Americans where he lays out the case that we should reverse this trend by implementing policies that support families, allowing more immigration, and revitalizing second-tier cities.