Buy 1 year before the halving, sell everything 1.5 years after the halving. Repeat.
If you started with $1000 in 11/28/2011 you would have bought 317.5 BTC. Hodling would give you 317.5 BTC worth $14,260,000.
If you Bitcoined properly, you would have 1445 BTC, worth $64,921,000.
11/28/2011, bought 317.5 BTC @ $3.1505/28/2014, sold for $181,000 @ $571
07/09/2015, bought 676 BTC @ $268
01/19/2017, sold for $10,490,000 @ $15,509
05/11/2019, bought 1445 BTC @ $7,258
Currently 1445 @ $44,919 = $64,921,000Assuming you paid 20% capital gains, you have 1156 BTC worth $51,900,000.
Sell it all on 11/11/2021.
The fourth transaction should be on 1/19/2018, when BTC was "only" $11,500.
But the 7% gain since you posted this a day ago corrected most of the error for you.
11/28/2011 buy 317.5 BTC @ $3 = $100005/28/2014 sell 317.5 BTC @ $571 = $181,270
07/09/2015 buy 676.4 BTC @ $268 = $181,270
01/19/2018 sell 676.4 BTC @ $11,498 = $7,777,687
05/11/2019 buy 1071.6 BTC @ $7258 = $7,777,687
03/01/2021 hold 1071.6 BTC @ $49,593 = $48,135,288
I didn’t mean to nitpick your numbers, but wanted to check for hindsight bias. Would your program have looked appealing in 2011?
The halving might make Bitcoin less attractive, so selling before and buying after is logical. But why 1 year before and 1.5 years after? Those magic numbers suggest some after-the-fact strategizing.
I suggest trying one year before and after, or 1.5 years before and after, or other combinations, and see if they often do better than a simple buy and hold strategy.
Here’s a handy Google Spreadsheets formula:
=INDEX(GOOGLEFINANCE("CURRENCY:BTCUSD","price",A7),2,2)Shoot, I might buy the ETH li'l' dip before it's erased by more gains.
I know; no halving.