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comment by orbat
orbat  ·  1149 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Donald Trump spends time in jail or prison

    Metaculus is not a market with financial incentives, but a reputation-based prediction aggregator. It gave Trump a 30% or less chance of reelection since summer 2018.

Do they track accuracy, and not like individual people like the leaderboard they have, but as in how good is the "market" at predicting stuff in aggregate?





wasoxygen  ·  1149 days ago  ·  link  ·  

They provide a Track Record here:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/

It’s hard for me to guess what a good record would look like, without another similar community to compare to.