- For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.
1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).
2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either
a) he is no longer President, or
b) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)
3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.
4) He would have to be found guilty.
5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.
6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.
In my predictions recap I forgot to mention my lost bet with am_Unition in favor of reelection. We shook on it in December 2018.
I repeated my expectation in September 2019, based on the economy which remained strong.
But no excuses, I was wrong, and also lost my remaining stake at PredictIt, after losing a big chunk in the 2016 election.
Metaculus is not a market with financial incentives, but a reputation-based prediction aggregator. It gave Trump a 30% or less chance of reelection since summer 2018.
The median probability that Trump spends time in jail or prison by June 30, 2028, is now 17%, so I feel pretty confident with my double-or-nothing bet with am_Unition.
Do they track accuracy, and not like individual people like the leaderboard they have, but as in how good is the "market" at predicting stuff in aggregate?Metaculus is not a market with financial incentives, but a reputation-based prediction aggregator. It gave Trump a 30% or less chance of reelection since summer 2018.
They provide a Track Record here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/ It’s hard for me to guess what a good record would look like, without another similar community to compare to.
Is there a prediction for "upon his death, the US Mint will release a Donald Trump one dollar coin?" They've been doing presidential dollars, but only after they die. I'm curious what they'll do if Trump is successfully impeached.
The Presidential $1 Coin Act of 2005 requires coins “emblematic of each President of the United States.” The full text does not mention impeachment. The First Lady will also get a gold coin, and if Trump is ever elected president again he will get a second coin.
Oh yeah, I forgot about the first lady gold coins. Presumably the Coin Act and most other things like it didn't consider having such a divisive president who would be impeached. I think it's possible impeachment would be used to remove this kind of privilege.