geopoliticalfutures.com [PDF] · #geopolitics
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- Instead, expect Beijing to look for moves that simultaneously A) make Taiwan feel alone against a foe whose military threats are not mere bluffs, B) please nationalists back home, C) carry a low risk of provoking the U.S. and friends into coming to Taiwan’s defense, and D) allow itself to back down without appearing to back down if the moves begin to backfire.There are two ways to do this. One is to impose a much more limited, selective blockade. It could start intercepting Taiwanese cargo ships, claiming that they’re carrying some sort of contraband or cooking up some other sort of rationale. No one would believe Beijing’s claims, but it wouldn’t matter. No one is going to come to Taiwan’s defense in that situation either way. And it would be unlikely to lead to war with Taiwan itself. If the diplomatic backlash became too intense, or if Taipei signaled a willingness to talk, Beijing could claim success and back down whenever it saw fit.Far more likely is the scenario that Beijing appears to be actively prepping for: Taking one of Taiwan’s lightly defended far-flung islands in the South or East China sea.